
2ÔÂ1ÈÕ£¬ÖйúÖ¤¼à»á¾ÍÖÜȫʵÑé¹ÉƱ¿¯ÐÐ×¢²áÖÆÉæ¼°µÄ¡¶Ê״ιûÕæ¿¯ÐÐ¹ÉÆ±×¢²áÖÎÀí²½·¥¡·£¨ÒÔÏÂͳ³ÆÖÎÀí²½·¥£©µÈÖ÷ÒªÖÆ¶È¹æÔò²Ý°¸¹ûÕæÕ÷ÇóÒâ¼û¡£Î°Òײ©½ðÈÚѧϵ½ÌÊÚÁõÓñÕäÒÔΪÕâÒâζ׿̿ƴ´°å¡¢´´Òµ°åµÈÂ½ÐøÊÔµãºó£¬¹ÉƱ¿¯ÐÐ×¢²áÖÆ½«ÔÚÖйú×ÊÔ´Êг¡ÖÜȫʵÑé¡£
µÚÒ»£¬Õâ´ÎË¢ÐÂÍÆ¶¯Öйú×ÊÔ´Êг¡×¢²áÖÆµÄÉú³¤ÂõÉÏÐĄ̂½×¡£Ò»·½Ã棬Õâ´Îˢиø°üÀ¨ÏûºÄ¡¢ÖÆÔìÔÚÄڵĸ÷ÐÐÒµÍØ¿íÁËÖ±½ÓÈÚ×ʵÄÇþµÀ¡£ÁíÒ»·½Ã棬ÔÚ¼æ¹ËÊг¡»¯¡¢¹ú¼Ê»¯µÄͬʱ£¬×¢²áÖÆË¢ÐÂÒ²±£´æÁËÖйúÌØÉ«£¬ÓÈÆäÌåÏÖÔÚÉóºË»úÖÆµÄ½øÒ»²½ÓÅ»¯ºÍÃ÷Îú¡£
×¢²áÖÆË¢ÐÂÏ£¬ÉúÒâËùºÍÖ¤¼à»áÔÚÉÏÊС¢·¢Ã÷¡¢Éó²éÉϵÄÖ°ÄÜ·Ö¹¤»ñµÃ½øÒ»²½ÓÅ»¯ÓëÇåÎú¡£¾ÝÖ¤¼à»áÍøÕ¾ÐÂÎÅ£¬Ë¢Ð½«¼á³ÖÉúÒâËùÉóºËºÍÖ¤¼à»á×¢²á¸÷ÓÐ×ÅÖØ¡¢Ï໥ÏνӵĻù±¾¼Ü¹¹¡£½øÒ»²½Ñ¹ÊµÉúÒâËù¿¯ÐÐÉÏÊÐÉóºËÖ÷ÌåÔðÈΣ¬ÉúÒâËù¶ÔÆóÒµÊÇ·ñÇкϿ¯ÐÐÌõ¼þ¡¢ÉÏÊÐÌõ¼þºÍÐÅÏ¢Åû¶ҪÇó¾ÙÐÐÖÜÈ«ÉóºË¡£Ö¤¼à»á»ùÓÚÉúÒâËùµÄÉóºËÒâ¼ûÒÀ·¨×÷³öÊÇ·ñÔÞ³É×¢²áµÄ¾öÒé¡£
µÚ¶þ£¬Ë¢ÐÂÆ«ÏòÉÏ£¬Õâ´ÎË¢ÐÂÍêÉÆÁË´íλÉú³¤¡¢Ï໥Ôö²¹µÄ×ÊÔ´Êг¡ÃûÌã¬ÒÔ¼°ÎÒ¹ú¶àÌõÀí×ÊÔ´Êг¡µÄϵͳ½¨Éè¡£ÉúÒâËùÔÚ¿¯ÐÐ×¢²áË¢ÐÂʵÑé³ÌÐòÉϼá³ÖÒ»Ö£¬µ«ÔÚÉúÒâÖÆ¶ÈÉÏ»ù±¾ÒÔίÍÐÇý¶¯ÎªÖ÷£¬ÔÚ¼ÛÇ®ÖÎÀíÉÏÒ²ÌåÏÖÒ»¶¨²î±ðÐÔ¡£
ƾ֤ÖÎÀí²½·¥Õ÷ÇóÒâ¼û¸å£¬Ö÷°åÍ»³ö¡°´óÅÌÀ¶³ï¡±ÌØÉ«£¬ÖصãÖ§³ÖӪҵģʽ³ÉÊ졢ı»®Òµ¼¨Îȹ̡¢¹æÄ£½Ï´ó¡¢¾ßÓÐÐÐÒµ´ú±íÐÔµÄÓÅÖÊÆóÒµ¡£¿Æ´´°åÓÅÏÈÖ§³ÖÇкϹú¼ÒÕ½ÂÔ£¬ÓµÓÐÒªº¦½¹µãÊÖÒÕ£¬¿Æ¼¼Á¢ÒìÄÜÁ¦Í»³ö£¬Ö÷ÒªÒÀÀµ½¹µãÊÖÒÕ¿ªÕ¹Éú²úı»®£¬¾ßÓÐÎȹ̵ÄÉÌҵģʽ£¬Êг¡ÈϿɶȸߣ¬Éç»áÐÎÏóÓÅÒ죬¾ßÓнÏÇ¿Éú³¤ÐÔµÄÆóÒµ¡£´´Òµ°åÖ÷ҪЧÀÍÉú³¤ÐÍÁ¢Òì´´ÒµÆóÒµ£¬Ö§³Ö¹Å°å¹¤ÒµÓëÐÂÊÖÒÕ¡¢Ð¹¤Òµ¡¢ÐÂҵ̬¡¢ÐÂģʽÉî¶ÈÈںϡ£
ÁõÓñÕä´Ëǰ¶Ô¿Æ´´°å¡¢´´Òµ°å×¢²áÖÆÅä¾°Ï£¬IPO¶ÔÊг¡¼ÛÇ®¹¥»÷¾ÙÐÐÁËÑо¿¡£Ëý½¨Ò飬ÔÚÊг¡ÖÜȫʵÑé×¢²áÖÆË¢Ðºó£¬î¿Ïµµ¥Î»ÐèÒª¾ÍÊÇ·ñ»áÒò¶ÌÆÚ¼ÛÇ®¹¥»÷¶ÔÆäËûÊг¡±¬·¢Òç³öЧӦµÈ×ö½øÒ»²½ÊÓ²ìºÍÆÀ¹À¡£Í¬Ê±£¬×¢²áÖÆË¢Ð³ýÁËÂ䵨ÔÚÉÏÊкÍî¿ÏµµÄ»·½ÚÉÏ£¬Ó¦¸ü¶àÂ䵨ÔÚÉúÒâ»·½ÚµÄÓÅ»¯Óë²î±ðÉÏ¡£´ÓÉúÒâ»úÖÆµÄÌØÉ«¿´£¬Á÷¶¯ÐÔÊÇ×¢²áÖÆÉú³¤µÄÒ»¸ö»·½Ú£¬¶øÎ´À´¸ü¶à¹«Ë¾ÉÏÊн«Ô½·¢Í¹ÏÔÊг¡Á÷¶¯ÐÔµÄÖ÷ÒªÐÔ¡£Êг¡Á÷¶¯ÐÔ¸ßÄܸüºÃµØÌåÏÖ¼ÛÇ®·¢Ã÷¹¦Ð§£¬´Ó¶ø¸ø³Ö¹Éʱ¼ä½Ï³¤µÄ»ú¹¹Í¶×ÊÕß´øÀ´¸üÇ¿µÄÇý¶¯Á¦£¬Ò²¸øÉ¢»§Í¶×ÊÕßÔÚÉúÒâÀú³ÌÖÐÌṩ¸ü¶à±£»¤¡£Òò´Ë£¬ÎªÁËÔÚÉúÒâÖÆ¶È·½ÃæÊµÏÖ¸üºÃµÄ´íλÉú³¤£¬¸÷Êг¡ÓÈÆäÐè×¢ÖØÌṩ¸ü¸ßÁ÷¶¯ÐÔ¡¢¸ü¶àÔªµÄÉúÒâ»úÖÆ¡£
ÁõÓñÕä½ÌÊÚÏÖÈÎΰÒײ©½ðÈÚѧ½ÌÊÚ¡¢²©Ê¿Éúµ¼Ê¦£¬±±¾©´óѧ½ðÈÚÉú³¤Ñо¿ÖÐÐÄÖ÷ÈΣ¬±±¾©´óѧÔö½øÁ½°¶½»Á÷»ù½ðÖ÷ÈΡ£ÁõÓñÕä½ÌÊÚµÄÖ÷ÒªÑо¿ÁìÓòΪÐÐΪ½ðÈÚ¡¢Êг¡Î¢¹Û½á¹¹¡¢²Æ²úÖÎÀíÒÔ¼°Á¿»¯Í¶×ʲúÆ·Éè¼Æ¡£ÏÖÔÚÒÑÔÚ¹ú¼Ê¶¥¼âѧÊõÆÚ¿¯Journal of Financial Economics, Review of Financial Studies¡¢Management Science¡¢Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Review of Asset Pricing Studies ½ÒÏþÂÛÎÄ¶àÆª£¬ÉÐÓÐ20¶àƪӢÎÄÂÛÎÄ¡¢ÊýʮƪÖÐÎÄÂÛÎĽÒÏþÔÚJournal of Financial Markets¡¢Journal of Corporate Finance¡¢Journal of Banking and Finance¡¢¡¶¾¼ÃÑо¿¡·¡¢¡¶ÖÎÀíÌìÏ¡·¡¢¡¶¾¼Ãѧ¼¾¿¯¡·¡¢¡¶½ðÈÚÑо¿¡·µÈº£ÄÚÍâÖ÷ҪѧÊõÆÚ¿¯ÉÏ¡£ÂÛÎÄÔø±»Åµ±´¶û½±»ñµÃÕßDaniel Kahneman½ÌÊÚÔÚThe EconomistÉÏ׫ÎÄÊ¢´óÍÆ¼öÔĶÁ¡£ÁõÓñÕä½ÌÊÚÒÀ¸½ÔÚÐÐΪ½ðÈÚºÍ֤ȯÊг¡ÖƶÈÉè¼ÆÁìÓòµÄ׿ԽЧ¹û£¬ºã¾Ã¼ÓÈëî¿ÏµÖƶÈÑо¿£¬»ýÀÛÁ˸»ºñµÄÕþ²ßî¿Ïµ¼°ÊµÎñÂÄÀú¡£